Bank run, The beginning of the end. Alla valutaunioner i historien har antingen lett till en stat eller spruckit. This is old version - New version is here. Greece is and will irreversibly remain a member of the euro area BBC, August 14, I hate to say it, but I fear that we are in for a new round of euro zone troubles.
Continued very low level of inflation expectations in the euro zone. As a consequence, nominal GDP growth also remains very weak across the euro zone. And with weak nominal GDP growth public finance concerns are again returning to the euro zone. Germany even gave up its fabled deutschmark, a totem of hard-earned postwar affluence, to forge a monetary union and satisfy French and British fears over its post-reunification muscle. Bloomberg June The eurozone is doomed to fail and will lurch from crisis to crisis unless it is broken up, according to the former governor of the Bank of England.
In his new book, Lord King claims that steps towards fiscal union will not quell tensions in the nation bloc and could even tear it apart. Guardian 15 Febr David Cameron scrapped a debate at the European parliament on Tuesday and scheduled a meeting with Jean-Claude Juncker, president of the European commission, amid fears that a proposed settlement geared to keeping the UK in the EU could unravel because of growing European objections to the concessions promised to Britain.
The EU did not collapse suddenly like the Roman empire. Its decline was more like that of the Holy Roman Empire. Early may be considered the apogee of what was then called the European project.
The previous spring, 10 states of central and eastern Europe joined the EU, making it the largest commonwealth of liberal democracies in European history. A single currency, the euro, appeared to be working well — and for many Europeans there was a sense of all-round optimism.
The outbreak of a pro-European Orange revolution in Ukraine convinced Russian president Vladimir Putin that the apparently soft, postmodern EU was a real threat to his power. A series of crises left European leaders reeling, starting with the rejection of the European constitution in referendums in France and the Netherlands, and continuing with a decade-long crisis of the eurozone, Russian annexation of parts of Ukraine, Islamist terror attacks, a British referendum on leaving the EU, millions of refugees fleeing the Middle East and Africa, as well as the growth of eurosceptic, anti-system and xenophobic parties across the continent.
The EU did not collapse suddenly like the Roman empire, with barbarian hordes occupying the bureaucratic palaces of Brussels. Unworkable and unreformable, the euro surely cannot survive another serious downturn The euro in its present form will die not of the financial traumas that first threatened its existence, but of popular anger Jeremy Warner, Telegraph 18 August Gideon Rachman, FT 8 June That failure to be flexible about change is dangerous.
A Europe that cannot bend is much more likely to break. There will be no serious adjustments of policy, since it will just be too hard Vem ska radda europa om euron faller agree what to do.
Gideon Rachman, FT May 26, The responses by the European Central Bank in recent years, plus the creation of a Banking Union, were examples of this principle in action, he argued. Full text at FT. Full text at Fed. FT 8 april A Greek departure from the eurozone would still be "negative", but that he believed it would be less damaging now because financial markets were much more confident than they had been in recent years.
However, he added that a "Grexit" would still leave the idea of monetary union in doubt. Accidental exit from the eurozone is quite likely — not because Greece or its partners want it Exit would transform the "Vem ska radda europa om euron faller" from an irrevocable currency union into a regime of hard exchange-rate pegs. That would be the worst of both worlds: Martin Wolf, FT 31 March A country is most likely to leave the euro if its government cannot meet its obligations, its banks close their doors, its economy is depressed and its politics are turbulent.
Greece might soon be in this state. A chaotic exit may then occur. Moreover, exit — particularly if unassisted — could cause grave economic and geopolitical consequences. Greece might plunge into an economic abyss. Abandoned by Europe, it might turn towards unfriendly powers. This would be a strategic disaster. Finally, Greece has already suffered the pains of austerity.
From now on, things should get better, provided policy improves. To save the euro, let Greece go The unfolding drama has exposed the weakness of imposing a common currency on such disparate societies without the central mechanisms either to enforce constraints on budget deficits or to trigger large inter-country subsidies.
Fundamental misalignments that have made life so unbearable for many Europeans. Imbalances tend to arise in economic life. There is nothing wrong with them in principle as long as they disappear eventually.
Germany had a surplus of 7. Greece is running a current account deficit despite one of the most brutal economic adjustments in modern history. But this process has not occurred, and, as the interminable Greek crisis has shown, the eurozone remains rife with structural weaknesses and extremely vulnerable to internal shocks.
This is clearly not sustainable. Moreover, labor mobility is severely constrained by linguistic and cultural barriers, as well as administrative bottlenecks.
It is a sign of low expectations in the handling of the Greek debt crisis when a deal to keep the country from chaos for four months at the most and only 72 hours at the least is hailed as a great breakthrough.
FT View 22 February In theory the euro is forever. That is what all the law associated with it says. And once it is not forever for Greece, it is not forever for any nation, even Germany.
Whether Berlin likes it or not, the moment Greece leaves, those who control the world's huge pools of liquidity or cash will start placing bets on the next country to head for the exit. Once Vem ska radda europa om euron faller happens, eurozone fragmentation is almost impossible to reverse. Berlin, Paris and the rest simply cannot be confident the euro will be for all time if Greece is either bundled out the exit door or chooses to walk through it.
Because it would demonstrate that the euro had failed in its core underlying purpose, which was to bind its members ever closer together, economically, financially and - perhaps critically - in a political sense too.
The euro is engaged in two dances of death. The risks of mutual misreading between Merkel and the markets on this are potentially catastrophic.
The real risk for the eurozone is that Greek default and euro departure go relatively well Roger Bootle, Telegraph 11 Janvia Rolf Englund blog. The spectre of Greece's exit from the single currency - or "Grexit" - once again. Eurozone policymakers have consistently ruled out that possibility because they are wary of opening Pandora's box.
Snap elections in Greece open the way for an anti-austerity government and a cathartic showdown over the terms of euro membership. Yields on 3-year Greek debt surged basis points to The rise of anti-system parties threatens a currency that "Vem ska radda europa om euron faller" on consensus Gideon Rachman, FT December 29, Secular stagnation Eurozone policy makers face three choices.
Firstthey can transform the eurozone into a political union, and do whatever it takes: Secondthey can accept secular stagnation. The final choice is a break-up of the eurozone. The second and third choices are not mutually exclusive. As the political union is firmly off the table, this leaves with a choice between depression and failure — or both in succession.
Financial markets have woken up to the possibility of a eurozone-wide economic depression with very low inflation over the next 10 to 20 years. The implications for those who live in such an economic snake pit are already visible: A shocking example is the decrepit state of German military hardware. Secular stagnation — the idea that a chronic shortfall of investment might produce a long period of weak demand — also has disturbing implications for financial investors.
The recent high levels of equity prices were premised on the best possible of all scenarios: Investors have now begun to realise that neither is going to happen.
GDP is still only close to the levels of First, they can transform the eurozone into a political union, and do whatever it takes: Defiant France ignores the abyss There is the argument in government ministries and the smoke-free conference rooms of Brussels, as politicians and bureaucrats attempt to define new continent-wide rules to ensure Europe does not slip back into a new and debilitating debt crisis. But the future of the European economy and its single currency is more likely to be decided on the streets.
Gideon Rachman, FT October 18 Borders and budgets risks provoking political crises that could plausibly culminate in the break-up of the euro, or even the EU. Gideon Rachman, FT October 20, How the euro was saved In the French seaside resort of Cannes To the astonishment of almost everyone in the room, Angela Merkel began to cry.
Unbalanced and unsustainable — if something cannot go on forever, then it will stop If something cannot go on for ever, Herb Stein, one time economic adviser to President Richard Nixon, famously remarked, it will stop. Yet sometimes, it seems to take an awfully long time to grind to a halt. Jeremy Warner, Telegraph, August 15th, If something cannot go on for ever it will stop. From the man who single-handedly invented the whole concept of economic commentary in newspapers comes a very clear-sighted column on why he thinks the eurozone will ultimately collapse.
Why the eurozone will come apart sooner or later The single currency has failed to
Vem ska radda europa om euron faller the harmonising force that it was supposed to be Samuel Vem ska radda europa om euron faller, Financial Times, August 8, If you prefer to store your data files in the Bolin Centre Database, we will contact you after you have filled in the Data Entry Form and provide information on how.
The krona has gained percent on a correlation-weighted basis against a basket of nine other Euron spricker när dollarn faller Därför det frenetiska arbetet – inte i första hand för att ”rädda Grekland” utan . De strukturreformer som krävs för att Europa ska kunna prestera bättre verkar behöva draghjälp utifrån. miska ämnen samarbetar i tre närverk för Europaforskning. . land som då ska leda unionens arbete inte rar delta i rådets handläggning av om vem som först lyckas bli redo för medlemskap - och nu deltar tolv länder i loppet.
en fast växelkurs för den nationella valutan i förhållande till euron (Estland).
Jeremy Warner Daily Telegraph 12 April Peter Wolodarski, DN 27 maj Whatever happened to the eurozone crisis? On the other hand, Syriza would like nothing better now than to see the yields on Spanish, Portuguese, or Italian sovereign debt relative to Germany jump, signalling broader market disquiet— that Grexit may be imminent and that the rump eurozone would be badly destabilized by it—so forcing ECB retreat.
What is going on? Or as the EEAG Report puts it, "the economies adopting the euro locked themselves into a system with no feasible adjustment mechanism.
- Bank run, The beginning of the end.
- The krona has gained 7.
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